The Honeymoon Is Over
When Naheed Nenshi took over the Alberta NDP leadership in 2023, he arrived with serious momentum. The former Calgary mayor — beloved by many for his decade-plus at city hall — was widely seen as the most compelling opposition leader the province had seen in years. Charismatic, sharp, and with real governing experience, he was supposed to be the NDP's best shot at unseating the United Conservative Party.
But a new poll analyzed by veteran Alberta pollster Janet Brown tells a different story: two years in, the lustre is fading.
What the Numbers Say
According to the CBC-commissioned poll, Albertans of nearly every demographic and region are now viewing Nenshi less favourably than they did when he first stepped into the provincial spotlight. At the same time, Premier Danielle Smith has been quietly gaining ground — not just among her traditional rural UCP base, but among groups that Nenshi might have expected to lock down.
It's a troubling trend for a party counting on Nenshi's star power to carry them into the next provincial election. The NDP had hoped his name recognition and crossover appeal — he was, after all, a three-term mayor who won votes from people across the political spectrum — would translate naturally to provincial politics.
It hasn't been that simple.
Why the Slide?
Political observers point to a few factors. Provincial politics in Alberta play differently than municipal politics, and Nenshi has had to stake out positions on issues — energy policy, the economy, federal-provincial tensions — where there's far less room for the pragmatic, non-partisan style that made him popular at city hall.
Smith, meanwhile, has been a more effective communicator on the issues Albertans care most about: cost of living, provincial autonomy, and economic development. Her willingness to pick high-profile fights with Ottawa — on everything from the carbon tax to equalization — has kept her base energized and attracted voters who might otherwise be persuadable.
Nenshi has also struggled to define a clear economic vision that resonates beyond the NDP's traditional urban supporters. In a province where the UCP controls the narrative on energy and jobs, the opposition needs a compelling counter-story — and so far, that message hasn't fully landed.
A Long Road to the Next Election
The next Alberta provincial election isn't expected until 2027, which means there's still time for Nenshi to course-correct. His campaign team will no doubt be looking hard at what's driving the shift in perception and whether the NDP's messaging needs a reset.
For now, though, the poll is a reality check for a party that had reason to feel optimistic just a couple of years ago. Alberta remains deeply competitive provincial territory — but Nenshi will need to rediscover the formula that once made him one of Canada's most talked-about politicians.
Source: CBC News Calgary. Original reporting by CBC's Alberta bureau.
