Every year, Ottawa real estate agents talk about the spring market as though it were a guaranteed tide. In 2026, prominent Canadian mortgage broker Ron Butler is pushing back on that narrative, and his arguments are worth taking seriously.
Butler's Core Argument
Butler, who runs one of Canada's largest independent mortgage brokerages and has a reputation for data-driven contrarianism, argues that the preconditions for a spring recovery simply aren't in place.
The key issue is affordability. Even with Bank of Canada rate cuts, monthly mortgage payments for a median-priced Ottawa home remain substantially higher than they were in 2019. The typical household that could afford a $600,000 home in 2019 cannot afford a $680,000 home in 2026, even with rates a percentage point lower than their 2023 peak.
The Demand Side Problem
Buyer demand in Ottawa and across Canada remains constrained by three overlapping forces: residual affordability stress from the rate cycle, employment uncertainty in key sectors, and a general psychological caution that follows a market correction.
Seasonal patterns matter less when structural barriers to entry are this significant. Spring brings buyers out to look; it doesn't necessarily bring them to the table.
What Ottawa's Market Tells Us
Ottawa's data supports a cautious reading. Days on market remain elevated. The months of supply, while declining from 2025 highs, hasn't tightened to the levels that historically precede rapid price appreciation. Listings are moving, but sellers are working for it.
When Might Recovery Come?
Butler and other observers point to a more realistic window of late 2026 or early 2027 for a meaningful recovery, contingent on further rate cuts, stable employment, and a psychological shift in buyer confidence.
For Ottawa buyers, this means there's no particular urgency. But for those who find the right property at the right price, waiting for 'peak conditions' could mean waiting indefinitely.
Source: Financial Post / Ron Butler mortgage analysis
