Ottawa's real estate market is part of a broader national story as the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has released updated resale housing market forecasts for both 2025 and 2026, and the numbers are worth paying attention to if you're planning a move in the capital.
What CREA Is Forecasting
CREA's revised forecasts reflect shifting conditions across Canada's housing market, factoring in economic uncertainty, interest rate movements, and evolving buyer demand. The association regularly updates its outlook throughout the year to account for new data, and this latest revision signals that the landscape for both buyers and sellers continues to evolve.
While the full details of the updated figures are outlined in CREA's official release, the broader trend points to a market that is gradually finding its footing after years of volatility driven by pandemic-era demand spikes and subsequent rate hikes by the Bank of Canada.
What This Means for Ottawa
For Ottawa residents, national forecasts from CREA provide a useful benchmark, though the capital's market has its own distinct characteristics. Ottawa tends to be more stable than red-hot markets like Toronto or Vancouver, buoyed by a large base of public sector employment and a steady stream of new residents drawn to the city's quality of life.
If CREA's updated forecasts point to modest sales growth and gradual price stabilization, trends consistent with what analysts have been watching nationally. Ottawa buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines may find 2025 and 2026 to be reasonable windows to re-enter the market. First-time buyers in particular, who were largely priced out during the 2021–2022 frenzy, could benefit from more balanced conditions.
Sellers: Tempered Expectations, But Steady Demand
For Ottawa homeowners thinking about listing, the revised forecasts suggest a market that won't deliver the eye-popping bidding wars of recent memory, but should still offer solid returns given how much values have appreciated over the past decade. Inventory levels and days-on-market will be key metrics to watch in neighbourhoods like Westboro, Kanata, Barrhaven, and Centretown.
Real estate professionals in Ottawa have noted that well-priced homes in desirable neighbourhoods continue to attract serious buyers, even as the pace of the market has normalized.
Keeping an Eye on Interest Rates
One of the biggest wildcards for Ottawa's real estate market, and the national picture, remains the Bank of Canada's interest rate path. Mortgage affordability has improved somewhat as rates have eased from their 2023 peaks, and any further cuts could unlock pent-up buyer demand heading into the spring and fall selling seasons.
For anyone navigating the Ottawa market this year, staying informed on both local inventory trends and CREA's evolving national forecasts is a smart move.
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), via crea.ca
