Ottawa's housing market is once again under the national spotlight as the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has released an updated resale housing market forecast covering 2026 and 2027, and for anyone thinking about buying or selling in the capital, the timing couldn't be more relevant.
What CREA Is Projecting
CREA's updated forecast reflects shifting conditions across Canadian real estate, factoring in interest rate trends, inventory levels, and buyer demand patterns that have been in flux since the post-pandemic correction. The association periodically revises its national and regional outlooks to account for new economic data, and this update comes at a time when many Canadians are watching closely for signals about whether the market has found its footing.
While CREA's report covers the national picture, Ottawa has historically tracked closely with broader Canadian trends, making these projections particularly relevant for local buyers, sellers, and investors.
What It Means for Ottawa
Ottawa's resale market has shown resilience in recent years, buoyed by steady public sector employment, a growing tech sector, and consistent in-migration. Unlike some larger metros, the capital tends to see more measured price swings, which can be both a comfort and a frustration depending on which side of the transaction you're on.
For prospective buyers in Ottawa, updated forecasts pointing to gradual market stabilization could signal that the window for more favourable conditions may be narrowing. If CREA's projections show renewed activity in 2026 and into 2027, waiting on the sidelines could become a costlier strategy.
For sellers, increased buyer confidence, if the forecast supports it, generally translates to shorter days on market and less pressure to negotiate down from asking price. Ottawa neighbourhoods like Westboro, Hintonburg, and Barrhaven have seen sustained demand, and any national uptick in activity typically amplifies that local momentum.
The Rate Factor
Much of the uncertainty in Canadian real estate right now hinges on the Bank of Canada's rate path. CREA's revised forecast likely incorporates expectations around further rate adjustments, which directly affect mortgage affordability. Ottawa buyers who've been pre-approved at current rates would do well to revisit their calculations in light of any new rate guidance embedded in CREA's update.
Looking Ahead
The 2026–2027 window will be a telling one for Ottawa real estate. With the federal government continuing to be one of the city's largest employers and new housing developments pushing into areas like Kanata North and Barrhaven South, supply dynamics are evolving alongside demand.
If CREA's numbers suggest a gradual recovery in national sales volumes, as many analysts have been anticipating. Ottawa stands to benefit from renewed confidence among buyers who've been sitting on the fence.
For the most detailed breakdown of CREA's projections and how they apply to your specific situation, speaking with a local realtor who tracks Ottawa's micro-markets is always a smart move.
Source: CREA (Canadian Real Estate Association) via crea.ca
