Ottawa home prices fell 4.5% year-over-year in January 2026, according to the Ottawa Real Estate Board, giving buyers in the National Capital Region a welcome breather after years of relentless price growth.
What the Numbers Say
The January dip brings the average resale home price in Ottawa to roughly the mid-$600,000 range, still elevated by historical standards, but meaningfully lower than the peak levels seen in 2022 and early 2023. Detached homes absorbed most of the decline, while condominiums held relatively steadier.
Inventory is also rising. Months of supply crept above three in January, nudging the market from seller-dominated territory closer to balanced conditions. That gives buyers more time to make considered decisions, a stark contrast to the frenzied bidding wars of recent years.
Why Prices Are Falling
Several forces are converging. The federal government's ongoing downsizing has injected uncertainty into Ottawa's public-sector-heavy economy, tempering demand from civil servants who might otherwise be moving up the property ladder. Add in elevated mortgage rates, still well above pre-2022 levels despite Bank of Canada cuts, and many buyers remain cautious.
Seasonal factors also play a role. January is historically Ottawa's slowest month for real estate, and the 4.5% year-over-year figure partly reflects comparisons to a particularly active January 2025.
Is This a Good Time to Buy?
For buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines, the current market offers genuine advantages. Sellers are more willing to negotiate. Conditions and home inspections are back on the table. And with interest rates expected to drift lower through 2026, buyers who act now can potentially refinance into better rates within 12 to 24 months.
First-time buyers with a solid down payment and stable employment are especially well-positioned. The combination of lower prices, rising inventory, and cooling competition creates windows that rarely last.
Neighbourhoods to Watch
The sharpest corrections have appeared in outer suburbs like Barrhaven, Kanata, and Orleans, where speculative buying was most intense during the 2021–2022 boom. Inner-city neighbourhoods like Westboro, the Glebe, and Old Ottawa South have been stickier on price, as supply there remains structurally tight.
What Sellers Should Know
If you're selling in Ottawa right now, pricing accurately from day one matters more than ever. Overpriced listings are sitting, sometimes for weeks, before sellers accept the market reality. A well-priced, well-presented home in a desirable neighbourhood is still moving, often within the first two weekends.
Source: Ottawa Real Estate Board / CTV News Ottawa
