Ottawa's NATO Bill Is Coming Due
Ottawa has a defence spending problem, and one of Canada's sharpest fiscal minds is warning the federal government it can't keep stalling.
Kevin Page, Canada's first Parliamentary Budget Officer and one of the most respected budget watchdogs the country has ever produced, is sounding the alarm: Canada cannot "rag the puck" on its NATO 2% GDP spending commitment and expect the numbers to magically work out by 2035.
For the uninitiated, ragging the puck is a classic hockey move — you hold onto the puck, kill the clock, and run out the time. It's a decent strategy in a tight playoff game. As a federal fiscal policy, Page argues, it's a disaster in the making.
What the 2% Target Actually Means
NATO members have long committed to spending 2% of their GDP on defence. Canada has historically trailed well behind that benchmark, hovering closer to 1.3–1.4% in recent years. That gap has drawn pointed criticism from allies — most loudly from Washington, which has repeatedly pressured members to carry more of the collective load.
The 2035 deadline represents a firm target for Canada to close that gap. But Page's concern is that the federal government appears to be treating it like a distant obligation — something to worry about later, with later conveniently never arriving.
The problem: the spending ramp required to get from where Canada is now to 2% of GDP by 2035 is steep. Delaying the increases doesn't just push costs forward — it compresses them, making the eventual jump even more jarring for federal finances.
Why Ottawa Should Be Paying Attention
For Ottawans, this isn't just abstract national policy. Ottawa is the seat of federal power, home to the Department of National Defence headquarters, and connected at every level to the machinery of government that will have to deliver on this commitment.
Defence procurement decisions — ships, planes, vehicles, infrastructure — ripple through the federal public service and into the broader Ottawa economy. If Canada accelerates its defence spending in a serious way, that spending flows through government departments concentrated right here in the capital.
Conversely, if Ottawa keeps deferring and then faces a fiscal crunch trying to meet the 2035 target at the last minute, the budget pressures will be felt across all federal spending — including programs that directly affect everyday life in the city.
Rag the Puck, Pay the Price
Page's message is straightforward: the government needs to be honest with Canadians about what the NATO commitment will cost and start building a credible path to get there. Vague assurances and flexible timelines are not a plan.
For a country that prides itself on being a reliable multilateral partner, showing up to 2035 with incomplete math and excuses would be a significant credibility hit on the world stage.
Ottawa — both the city and the government it houses — has a lot riding on getting this right.
Source: Toronto Star via Google News Ottawa
