Ottawa residents heading into another provincial election cycle have reason to pay close attention to a new round of polling that paints a nuanced picture of Ontario's political landscape.
Ford Still on Top, But the Floor Is Shifting
According to exclusive polling conducted for Global News, Premier Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario continue to lead all other parties in voter preference. On the surface, it looks like business as usual for the Ford government. But dig into the numbers and a more complicated story emerges.
The polling reveals that while Ford remains the most popular choice among decided voters, the share of Ontarians who are signalling they want change is growing. That's a meaningful shift, and one that strategists across party lines will be watching carefully as the province moves deeper into the current mandate.
What This Means for Ottawa
For Ottawa voters, provincial politics hit close to home. The Ford government controls major files that directly affect the capital: transit funding (including the long-suffering LRT), housing policy, healthcare infrastructure, and the city's relationship with the province on everything from development charges to green space protections.
Ottawa has historically been a mixed battleground provincially, the city sends both Conservative and NDP members to Queen's Park, and ridings like Ottawa Centre, Ottawa West–Nepean, and Carleton have all been competitive in recent cycles. A softening in Ford's broader support could make some of those seats more interesting to watch.
It's also worth noting that Ottawa-area voters have had their own frustrations with the province, from the ongoing LRT saga, which has involved provincial scrutiny and oversight, to debates over the Greenbelt and regional planning.
The Opposition's Opening?
The growing appetite for change doesn't automatically translate into votes for any particular alternative. Ontario's opposition parties, the NDP under Marit Stiles and the Liberals under Bonnie Crombie, have been working to consolidate progressive and moderate voters, but neither has broken through decisively in polling.
For change-minded voters in Ottawa, the question will be whether that energy can coalesce around a single alternative or whether it gets split in a way that keeps Ford's PCs in power even with softer numbers.
Reading Between the Lines
Polling at this stage of a mandate is rarely predictive. Ontario's next provincial election isn't due until 2026, and a lot can shift between now and then. Economic conditions, healthcare wait times, housing affordability, and any number of unexpected events can reshape the landscape quickly.
What the numbers do tell us is that Ford's political durability is real, but not unconditional. Ottawa residents, like voters across the province, are watching closely to see whether the government can translate its polling resilience into continued policy wins on the issues that matter most locally.
Stay tuned to ottown.ca for continued coverage of provincial politics and how they affect life in Ottawa.
Source: Global News Ottawa, exclusive provincial polling, 2026.
