Ottawa transit riders and city planners should be paying close attention to what's happening in London, Ontario — because the same forces reshaping bus ridership there are already at work in the capital.
London's transit agency reported a drop of nearly two million riders in 2025, and officials are pointing directly at one cause: the federal government's cap on international student permits, which dramatically reduced enrolment at colleges and universities across Ontario.
Why Students Matter So Much to Transit
International students are disproportionately heavy transit users. Many arrive without vehicles, live near campuses, and rely on buses and trains to get around daily. When enrolment surges — as it did in the early 2020s — transit agencies see a corresponding lift in ridership numbers. When enrolment drops, the effect is swift and measurable.
London's experience illustrates just how exposed Ontario transit agencies have become to this single demographic variable. The city's bus system lost ridership at a scale that would be difficult to offset through any short-term service or marketing initiative.
Ottawa's Exposure
Ottawa is home to two major post-secondary institutions — the University of Ottawa and Carleton University — both of which have seen significant international student populations in recent years. Algonquin College, with campuses across the city, has also enrolled large numbers of international students.
OC Transpo has been working to rebuild ridership numbers since the pandemic, and student riders have been an important part of that recovery story. U-Pass programs, which bundle transit access into student fees, provide a reliable base of ridership and revenue. Any sustained decline in student enrolment puts that base at risk.
The city hasn't yet released detailed 2025 ridership breakdowns tied specifically to the student permit changes, but transit advocates say Ottawa should be monitoring the trend closely.
A Broader Ontario Pattern
London is unlikely to be an outlier. Transit agencies in Hamilton, Kitchener-Waterloo, and the Greater Toronto Area have all flagged international student enrolment as a key driver of ridership trends. The provincial transit landscape was reshaped significantly by the post-pandemic enrolment boom, and the reversal of that boom is now working its way through balance sheets.
For Ottawa, the timing is particularly sensitive. OC Transpo has faced years of budget pressure, fare increases, and service reliability challenges following the troubled LRT expansion. Ridership recovery has been slower than hoped, and any new headwinds — including a student population decline — could complicate the agency's financial outlook heading into 2027 and beyond.
What Comes Next
Transit planners are being urged to avoid building long-term ridership projections on student population assumptions that may not hold. Diversifying the rider base — through better connections to employment zones, improved frequency on commuter corridors, and competitive pricing for non-student riders — is increasingly seen as essential to long-term stability.
For now, London's numbers serve as a cautionary tale. Ottawa should take note.
Source: Global News Ottawa. Original reporting by Global News.
