The EV Affordability Barrier Is About to Get a Major Fix
For years, one of the biggest arguments against going electric has been simple: EVs cost too much. Even with government incentives, sticker prices on new electric vehicles have kept a large chunk of buyers on the sidelines. But that equation could shift dramatically over the next few years — not because automakers are suddenly feeling generous, but because the math on used EVs is about to look very different.
According to data from Cox Automotive, just 123,000 EV leases expired in 2025. That number is expected to more than double to 300,000 in 2026 — and then double again, reaching 600,000 in 2027 and 660,000 in 2028. Do the math and you're looking at well over a million lease returns flooding the used vehicle market in a compressed window of roughly three years.
Why Lease Returns Matter
The vast majority of vehicles coming off lease don't go back to the original buyer — they enter the used market. That means dealership lots and online platforms could soon be stocked with three- to four-year-old electric vehicles at significantly lower prices than their new counterparts.
This is a bigger deal than it might sound. Used vehicles already dominate car sales in the United States — according to Consumer Affairs, approximately 76 percent of all cars sold in the US in 2024 were pre-owned. Most people who drive don't buy new. If EVs start appearing in meaningful numbers on used lots with lower price tags and proven real-world range data, the case for going electric becomes a lot harder to dismiss.
The Ripple Effect on the Market
An influx of used inventory typically pushes prices down across the board. As more off-lease EVs compete for buyers, sellers — whether private owners, dealerships, or manufacturer-certified programs — will have to price competitively. That pressure on used prices can also dampen enthusiasm for new models, giving automakers an incentive to keep new EV pricing sharper.
For budget-conscious buyers who have been watching the EV space from the sidelines, the window between 2026 and 2028 could represent a genuine entry point — particularly for popular lease models that have established reputations for reliability and charging infrastructure.
Caveats Worth Keeping in Mind
Of course, a surge in used EV supply doesn't automatically mean everyone wins. Battery degradation remains a real concern for buyers shopping older electric vehicles, and not all models age equally. Buyers will need to do their homework on battery health reports and remaining warranty coverage before signing anything.
There's also the question of charging infrastructure. A used EV is only as practical as the charging network around you — and in many parts of North America, that network is still a patchwork of reliability.
Still, the directional trend is clear: the used EV market is about to grow up fast, and price is about to become a much weaker argument against going electric.
Source: The Verge / Cox Automotive / Consumer Affairs
