Carney heads into a diplomatic minefield
Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to arrive in Ankara this week for a NATO summit that's shaping up to be less about Russia and more about managing one very unpredictable ally: the United States.
Carney joins a lineup of European leaders trying to walk the same tightrope — avoid saying anything that sets off U.S. President Donald Trump while he's standing right next to them, but also avoid coming home looking like they folded to his demands. It's a balancing act that's become a defining feature of NATO diplomacy since Trump returned to the White House.
The bigger worry: Washington stepping back
Behind closed doors, allied officials are increasingly focused on signals coming out of Washington suggesting a reduced U.S. military footprint in Europe. For decades, American troops, hardware, and intelligence-sharing have formed the backbone of NATO's deterrence posture against Russia. Any pullback forces the rest of the alliance — Canada included — to think hard about how to fill the gap.
That's part of why officials are increasingly worried the greatest threat to NATO's cohesion right now isn't external. It's internal — a fracture that could open up not because of Moscow, but because member states can't agree on how to handle their most powerful ally.
Canada's balancing act
For Carney, the summit is as much about domestic politics as international diplomacy. Canadians have watched their government navigate an increasingly transactional relationship with Washington on trade, defence spending, and border security. Showing up in Ankara and appearing to bend to Trump's demands on defence spending or alliance commitments could be read at home as another concession to an unpredictable neighbour.
At the same time, Carney can't afford to be seen as picking a public fight with Trump on the world stage — something that could complicate ongoing trade talks and other bilateral files back in Ottawa.
Canada has faced pressure for years to hit NATO's defence spending targets, and this summit will likely reignite that conversation. How Carney handles questions about Canada's military commitments, and whether he addresses the alliance's internal tensions directly, will be closely watched by both allies and critics back home.
What's next
The summit comes at a pivotal moment for the 76-year-old alliance, which has weathered wars, financial crises, and shifting global power dynamics — but rarely has it faced this level of uncertainty about whether its most powerful member remains fully committed to the collective defence principle that has underpinned it since 1949.
Expect more details to emerge as the summit unfolds, along with reaction from Ottawa on what, if anything, changed for Canada's own defence posture.
Source: CBC News
