Canada's electricity system is heading into a period of transformational growth, according to new modelling from the Canada Energy Regulator (CER) released this week. Electricity demand is projected to rise 44% between 2023 and 2050, driven by residential growth, industrial expansion, and the rapidly growing demands of AI data centres.
The country's total generation capacity is expected to roughly double, from 160 gigawatts in 2023 to 310 gigawatts by 2050, making this one of the most significant infrastructure build-outs in Canadian history.
Wind and Solar Leading the Way
Renewable energy will do the heavy lifting. Wind power is projected to be the largest source of new electricity generation, expanding from 40 terawatt-hours in 2023 to 277 terawatt-hours by 2050. Solar capacity will also climb sharply, complementing wind as a variable but increasingly cost-effective generation source.
These renewable sources will be backstopped by stable generation from hydroelectricity, nuclear, and natural gas, a mix that CER modellers say will be necessary to keep the grid reliable as variable sources make up a larger share of the portfolio.
Nuclear's Return to the Conversation
Nuclear energy is back on the table in a big way. Ontario is already constructing the first of four small modular reactors (SMRs) at a cost exceeding $20 billion. Alberta and Saskatchewan are pursuing similar projects. SMRs have been championed as a way to provide reliable, low-carbon baseload power in regions that lack large hydroelectric resources, and the federal government has been supportive of the technology.
Grid Modernization
To handle the new mix of generation and increased demand, Canada's interprovincial transmission infrastructure is projected to grow approximately 70% by 2050. The goal is to better balance supply and demand across provinces, letting surplus wind power from the Prairies, for example, flow east when needed.
Fossil Fuels: Stable, Not Gone
Despite the renewable surge, oil and natural gas consumption are expected to remain relatively stable, increasing by just 1% compared to 2023 levels. Natural gas, in particular, is expected to continue playing a bridging role as the grid transitions.
The CER's modelling makes one thing clear: Canada's energy future is electric, increasingly renewable, and more interconnected than ever before.
Source: CBC News
