Designed to Survive
When US-Israeli forces assassinated Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the expectation in some quarters was that the theocratic regime would fracture and fall. Eighteen days into the conflict, that has not happened. Al Jazeera speaks to analysts who explain why, and what the regime's survival means for the trajectory of the war.
The answer, it turns out, lies in how the Islamic Republic was architected from its founding: as a system designed to outlast any single leader.
The Succession Structure
The Islamic Republic's constitution anticipates the death or incapacitation of the Supreme Leader. The Assembly of Experts, a body of senior clerics with the authority to appoint, oversee, and remove the Supreme Leader, is constitutionally empowered to select a successor.
The process is not instantaneous, and it is not without internal tension. But the machinery exists, and it has been activated. Iran is operating under a collective leadership arrangement while the succession question is resolved, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) playing a central role in maintaining order and continuing military operations.
The IRGC's Role
Analysts point to the IRGC as the key institution ensuring continuity. The Revolutionary Guards are not merely a military force. They are deeply embedded in Iran's economy, politics, and security apparatus. They have every incentive to keep the system functioning, as their power and privileges depend on the survival of the Islamic Republic.
In the absence of the Supreme Leader, the IRGC has effectively become the regime's backbone, enforcing internal discipline and directing the military response to US-Israeli attacks.
Nationalism as a Unifying Force
Counter-intuitively, the foreign assault may have actually strengthened the regime's position domestically, at least in the short term. Analysts note that foreign military attacks often generate nationalist sentiment even among populations that are critical of their government. Iranians who were dissatisfied with the regime may nonetheless rally against what they perceive as foreign aggression.
What Comes Next?
The selection of a new Supreme Leader will be one of the most consequential decisions in the Islamic Republic's history. The choices available are limited and contested. But the fact that the regime has survived 18 days of US-Israeli attacks, including the killing of its top leader, is a signal that any expectation of swift political collapse was based on wishful thinking.
Source: Al Jazeera
