The Tanker War, Revisited
Decades ago, the world watched as Iran and Iraq attacked commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf in what became known as the tanker war. Today, a new version of that conflict is playing out in the Strait of Hormuz, and once again, the world's oil supply is at risk.
Al Jazeera's Project Force analysis examines how Iran is targeting ships in retaliation for US military attacks, and asks the central question: can the US Navy stop them?
Iran's Maritime Strategy
Iran has developed a sophisticated anti-ship capability over decades of planning for exactly this scenario. Its strategy relies on a combination of fast attack boats, anti-ship missiles, naval mines, and drones, asymmetric tools designed to threaten much larger and more expensive naval vessels.
The Strait of Hormuz is only about 33 kilometres wide at its narrowest point, which works in Iran's favour. In such a confined space, even a relatively modest anti-ship capability can create havoc for commercial shipping.
What the US Is Up Against
The US Navy is the most powerful naval force in the world, but projecting that power in a contested, narrow strait is a different challenge from operating in open ocean. Iran's tactics, using swarms of small, fast vessels; firing missiles from coastal positions; deploying sea mines, are specifically designed to complicate the US Navy's ability to protect every commercial vessel moving through the waterway.
Insurance for tankers transiting the strait has reportedly skyrocketed, and some shipping companies are already rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, the much longer route around the southern tip of Africa, to avoid the risk.
The Economic Stakes
Roughly 20 percent of the world's daily oil consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Every day that Iranian attacks deter or delay shipping through the strait is another day of upward pressure on global oil prices.
For the US, keeping the strait open is not just a military objective. It is an economic and political imperative. Failure to do so would dramatically raise the cost of the war at home and around the world.
No Easy Answers
Military analysts say there is no simple solution. Completely neutralizing Iran's anti-ship capability would require a much larger and more costly military operation than is currently underway. The US faces a difficult choice between escalation and accepting a degree of risk to commercial shipping that the global economy can ill afford.
Source: Al Jazeera
