Ottawa's housing market is once again in the spotlight after the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) released an updated resale housing forecast for 2026 and 2027, signalling shifts that buyers, sellers, and investors across the country — including here in the capital — will want to keep on their radar.
What CREA Is Saying
CREA periodically revises its national housing forecasts to reflect changing economic conditions, interest rate movements, and buyer sentiment. The latest update adjusts expectations for both sales volumes and average home prices over the next two years. While the full details of the revised numbers are outlined directly on crea.ca, the broader message is one of cautious recalibration — acknowledging that the market remains sensitive to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy, inflation, and the Bank of Canada's rate trajectory.
Nationally, CREA has been tracking a market that's been in a holding pattern for much of early 2026, with many would-be buyers sitting on the sidelines waiting for clearer signals on borrowing costs.
Ottawa's Position in the Forecast
Ottawa tends to be one of Canada's more stable real estate markets, buoyed by a large base of federal public servants, steady population growth, and relatively diverse housing stock compared to Toronto or Vancouver. That stability can be a double-edged sword — Ottawa doesn't see the same dramatic price swings in either direction, but it also means the market can be slow to respond when conditions shift.
In recent months, Ottawa resale activity has reflected the national trend of cautious demand. Listings have been ticking up in several neighbourhoods, giving buyers slightly more breathing room than they had during the frenzied pandemic-era market. Condos in Centretown and townhomes in Barrhaven and Kanata have seen particularly notable inventory increases.
What Buyers and Sellers Should Watch
For Ottawa buyers who've been waiting for the right moment, CREA's updated forecast is worth reading carefully. If the association is projecting a gradual recovery in sales activity heading into 2027, that could signal increasing competition — and rising prices — as more buyers re-enter the market.
For sellers, the message is nuanced. Pricing realistically remains critical in a market where buyers have more choices. Overpriced listings are sitting longer, and agents are advising clients to look closely at comparable sales from the past 60–90 days rather than peak 2022 numbers.
The Rate Watch Continues
Much of CREA's revised outlook hinges on what the Bank of Canada does with its benchmark rate over the next 12–18 months. After a series of cuts in late 2024 and 2025, rates appear to be stabilizing — but the prospect of further reductions could unlock a significant wave of pent-up demand in Ottawa and across Canada.
First-time buyers in Ottawa, many of them younger federal workers and university graduates, have been among the most rate-sensitive segments. Even a modest additional cut could make a meaningful difference in what they qualify for.
The Bottom Line
CREA's updated forecast isn't a crystal ball, but it does provide a useful framework for understanding where Canada's housing market — and Ottawa's corner of it — may be headed. Whether you're looking to buy your first condo in Hintonburg or sell a detached home in Orleans, staying informed on national trends is part of making smart local decisions.
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association (crea.ca) via Google News Ottawa Real Estate RSS feed.
