Five plans, one shared deadline
Every major Quebec party is now promising a return to budget balance within the next three to four years. The Coalition Avenir Quebec's framework targets balance by 2029-2030, with an unallocated $8 billion line for future announcements not yet detailed, and it rules out any tax cuts before that balance is reached, a reversal from its 2022 campaign promises. The CAQ plan also leans on anticipated federal revenues that Ottawa has not confirmed, including no firm commitment yet on renewed federal health transfers.
The Quebec Liberal Party's framework also targets 2029-2030 for balance, addressing what it calls more than $40 billion in cumulative deficits racked up over the previous eight years, while committing nearly $12 billion in new spending on housing, education, health, families and business competitiveness. The Parti Quebecois is promising to get there faster, by 2028-2029, a year ahead of the legal requirement, by cutting what it calls CAQ-era bureaucratic waste by $6.6 billion. PQ finance spokesperson Nicolas Marceau pegs the party's own new campaign promises at roughly $6.5 billion over four years, backed by a $5 billion contingency reserve.
Taxes up, taxes down
The two frameworks pulling in opposite directions on taxes are the Conservative Party of Quebec and Quebec Solidaire. The PCQ says its plan, which assumes no unconfirmed increase in federal transfers, would save an average household $11,166 in taxes over a first mandate, funded by cutting business subsidies and administrative spending while keeping $8 billion in contingency provisions over five years plus Generations Fund contributions. Quebec Solidaire is proposing the opposite: a wealth tax of 1% on fortunes above $25 million and 2% above $100 million, targeting about 4,000 households, the wealthiest 0.1%, which it says would raise close to $5 billion a year. QS values its own election promises at nearly $10.5 billion over four years and projects raising a matching $10.5 billion in new revenue by 2030-2031, also reaching balance in 2029-2030.
The referendum line item
The PQ framework is the only one to put a number on a possible referendum: $130 million, split between $10 million in 2027-2028 and another $10 million in 2028-2029 for studies, consultations and a travelling commission on a provisional constitution, plus $110 million to actually hold the vote. PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has said the real preparation cost would land closer to $20 million, maybe $30 million depending on unforeseen circumstances.
Why Ottawa should watch
Federal transfers show up as an assumption in more than one of these frameworks, particularly the CAQ's, and any renegotiation of health funding or other transfers gets decided in Ottawa, not Quebec City. It follows ottown's earlier report on Quebec Solidaire's push for a $20 minimum wage, another piece of the same debate over how far Quebec's next government should go on spending and taxation.
Sources: Parti libéral du Québec (official), Parti conservateur du Québec (official), Parti Québécois (official), Noovo Info, Journal de Sherbrooke, Analyse APDQ (Actualité politique du Québec)
