Ottawa residents holding on to their fall jackets a little longer may be onto something. A new seasonal forecast from The Weather Network says winter is likely to be delayed this year across the region, driven by an unusually strong El Nino pattern.
A Record-Strength El Nino
The forecast comes from Dr. Doug Gillham, a senior meteorologist at The Weather Network who specializes in long-range forecasting and authored the company's 2026 fall and winter outlook. Gillham describes the El Nino behind this year's pattern as one of the strongest ever observed, and notes it developed unusually early in the season. "Winter is probably going to wait on the sidelines for a while," Gillham said of what the pattern means for the months ahead.
What It Means for Ottawa
For Ottawa specifically, the forecast points to a possible silver lining. The capital is flagged as one of the areas that could benefit from a drier weather pattern settling in later in the fall, a shift that would be welcome after a record-wet summer left the region soaked for months.
Don't Put the Rain Gear Away Yet
That said, Gillham is clear the drier pattern isn't arriving immediately. He said the rest of September into the beginning of October is "not good news" for Ottawa and the wider region, because more rain is still needed before conditions turn drier. So while the broader trend points to an extended fall, the next few weeks may still bring more wet weather before things shift.
Looking Ahead to Winter
Further out, Gillham and The Weather Network's forecast team say they do not expect consistent cold or early winter weather as fall wraps up, reinforcing the idea that Ottawa's transition into winter conditions will come later than usual. The outlook also calls for fewer classic fall storms overall across Ontario this season, with precipitation generally expected to run below normal across much of Canada through the fall months.
What's Still Unknown
The forecast does not specify exact dates for when winter conditions will arrive in Ottawa, or give specific temperature figures for the region. As with any long-range outlook, the details could shift as the season progresses, and residents planning outdoor events, patio closures, or winter tire installations may want to keep an eye on updated forecasts from The Weather Network as fall goes on.
For now, the message for Ottawa is a simple one: don't rush to put away the fall wardrobe, but don't count on dry skies just yet either.
Sources: The Weather Network, CP24
