Ottawa's own soldiers are among the NATO forces watching Russia's next move most closely, as new reporting suggests the Kremlin may be testing the alliance's eastern edge.
A warning delivered in Moscow
CIA Director John Ratcliffe travelled to Moscow in August and, according to multiple reports, warned Russian officials against attacking NATO members, particularly the Baltic states. CBS News reported that Ratcliffe delivered the warning during his visit the week of August 25, citing multiple people familiar with the matter. The message was blunt: an attack on a NATO member would not go unanswered.
The warning came as NATO has already moved to shore up its northeastern flank. The alliance established Baltic Sentry after incidents involving critical undersea infrastructure in the Baltic Sea, and it launched a separate mission called Eastern Sentry after Russian drones and aircraft violated the airspace of several member states in 2025, including Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Romania.
Ottawa's stake in Latvia
This is where Ottawa's involvement becomes direct rather than diplomatic. If Russia were to test NATO's Article 5 commitment anywhere along the Baltic frontier, Canadian personnel would almost certainly be among the first to respond.
Spending is rising to match the risk
The warning and the troop buildup are matched by a sharp jump in defence budgets. European allies and Canada increased defence spending by nearly 20 percent in real terms in 2025, pushing combined spending above US$574 billion, according to NATO figures reported by France 24.
What it means going forward
For Ottawa, the story isn't abstract. Federal defence spending decisions, made in large part by officials and military planners based in the capital, are what fund the Latvia brigade and the broader NATO buildup. As Canada's defence budget continues climbing in response to these pressures, expect more of that spending, and more deployment decisions affecting local service members and their families, to keep flowing through Ottawa in the months ahead.
Sources: Ottawa Life Magazine, CBS News, France 24
