What Would Quebec Independence Cost? An Alberta Study Offers Clues

Ottawa is the capital both Alberta and Quebec sovereigntists want to leave, and a new report out of Calgary is suddenly relevant to Quebec's election campaign too, even though it was never written with Quebec in mind.

What the Alberta report found

A report from the University of Calgary's School of Public Policy, commissioned by the Alberta government and released on a Wednesday, found that establishing a new country could cost Alberta between $50 billion and $170 billion in the first five years of separation. The numbers get worse the longer transition takes. In a difficult scenario, the report found Alberta's government debt would hit $442.3 billion, a figure that includes the province's existing share of the federal debt plus the deficits that come with transition costs. Even in a smoother scenario, the report found Alberta's debt would soar to $324.1 billion.

Quebec's own referendum math

Across the river, Parti Québécois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has put his own price tag on the road to a vote. St-Pierre Plamondon says his planned sovereignty referendum would cost at least $130 million. That budget breaks down into $20 million for studies and consultations in the early years of a PQ government mandate, and $110 million to actually hold the referendum, which he has pencilled in for 2029-30. St-Pierre Plamondon has also said his party would hold that referendum only after U.S. President Donald Trump leaves office, tying Quebec's independence timeline to American politics as much as its own.

The overlap savings claim

The PQ's own campaign document, called the Livre bleu, argues the ledger runs the other way too. It claims an independent Quebec could save up to $16 billion a year by eliminating overlap with Ottawa, a figure the party has revised upward from a previous estimate of $11 billion. That claim, that duplicating federal and provincial bureaucracy costs Quebec billions a year, is central to the sovereigntist pitch and one Ottawa policy watchers will be picking apart as the campaign enters its final stretch.

For Ottawa, a city built around the federal government whose overlap with the provinces the PQ wants to eliminate, both sets of numbers cut close to home.

Earlier this month

The cost figures land in the middle of a campaign ottown has been following closely. Quebec's leaders clashed in their final televised debate this week, and Élections Québec's directive that poll workers speak only French unless a voter proves an exemption has already drawn scrutiny from this side of the river. You can read ottown's earlier report on the debate and ottown's earlier report on the language directive for more on how the campaign has unfolded.

Sources: Global News (https://globalnews.ca/news/12061315/alberta-separation-report-costs/), Global News (https://globalnews.ca/news/12055385/parti-quebecois-referendum-cost/), Globe and Mail (https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-quebec-pq-caq-plamondon-sovereignty-separatism-election/)